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Murphy's Blog: (scroll down)

Murphy responds to Horwitz on the 20-21 Depression

...OK now that you've got the context, check out Horwitz's post. He takes the 1920-1921 trump card head-on and argues that it would have been even less painful if the Fed had done what he recommends. In other words, the 1930s was the worst ever, because you had Hoover's New Deal-lite combined with dumb deflationary Fed policy. The 1920-1921 depression was better than that, but it was still really bad, because you had Harding's laissez-faire policies combined with dumb deflationary Fed policy.

If I had to give a reaction on the spot, I'd say that I disagree with Horwitz. In particular, I think part of why there was a depression in 1920-1921 was that the huge WW1 bubble was popped, since the Fed had become alarmed by the 20% price inflation. So if that's right, I don't see how you could have had the corrective readjustment of resources, without most of the pain that they did in fact experience. Ditto for the fiscal policies: I think there had to be a period of "idle resources" as the US economy reconfigured itself from the arsenal of democracy back into the engine of consumerism.

-flynn

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